What do you mean? The sales have been reported as being better than SCV. Plus there’s digital. I estimate that physical and digital combined the sales are somewhere from 1.5 to 2.I'd be surprised to see any character with their own style ever given away as a freebie, regardless of whether the foundation for their moveset was already complete at the point of the main game's launch. If we're getting Lizardman as a playable, fully developed character, I'd say its almost certainly in a season pass.
But, to answer Nyte's question, I'd be pretty psyched about it: things like that buy a lot of fan loyalty, I feel, but given the budget and development constraints this game labours under, I very much doubt PS can get Namco to greenlight anything beyond what they are already doing (the occasional free CaS item, possibly the new stages, and who knows, maybe Edge Master as a mimic at some point) as a freebie. Contrary to the assessment that "the game clearly is selling really well, since they authorized a second season pass", I don't think we can really be certain of this. Namco made some vague statements back in the first quarter suggesting that the game was selling well (relative to whatever metric they were using/pre-release target projection they were aiming for), but the company has a vested interest in playing up its level of satisfaction with sales. The reality is that the best data we have suggests the game's lifetime sales will probably not much exceed SCV's 1.5 million.
All of that considered, one might well ask "Well, isn't the second season itself an indication that the sales, lackluster as they might be compared against the more successful fighters, are at least sufficient (relative to the game's budget) to justify further investment?" And I think the answer to that question is yes and no. I think the real motivation here is that Namco is now seizing every opportunity it can get to normalize season passes as the status quo for its fighters--this has long been an objective of developers and publishers (particularly in the fighting genre) who do not have enough market share to offset the spiraling costs of production relative to a fixed cost for the base game, but consumers have pushed back against it (sometimes for good cause, but more frequently from a poorly reasoned sense of entitlement, and to their own detriment, imo). Now Namco (and other devs) see their moment and really want to set up this new continuing support purchase model, so that they can start making their fighters as big as they used to be (or indeed, bigger) while being able to scale the price they ask for all of that content.
So it would probably make sense for Namco to support a second and third season for Soulcalibur even with it's at-best-moderate sales, just to give more push to establishing this as the new standard content model. But on top of that, there's also the fact that they can actually make a potentially much larger profit--relative to the amount of work/resources put into the amount of content--from DLC than they do from the base game (though it depends on their meeting a certain sales threshold). So there's that too. But I don't think sales have been so stellar on any element of the game that they are likely to just start giving away full characters, with complete movesets: such content represents a substantial commitment of resources in a 3D fighter, and I don't see them given that away. I still hold out hope for Edge Master as a freebie, however. Surely someone on the team must have floated the idea at some point in the last two and half years.