Reading Your Opponent: I Can See The Future

What’s the one way that you can guarantee victory forever and ever, win all of the time, and never lose? I’m talking… tournaments, sponsorships, money matches, casuals in the dorm room, skimpy cosplay girls, game director shaking your hand, Charlie Sheen, all I do is win, put your hands in the air, make them stay there. Be psychic.

If you were psychic you could win every time. You could punish your opponent’s moves extremely hard since you knew what they were going to do next. Every time they thought you were going to do something you could do the complete opposite and totally debase their physical reality leading to immediate insanity and a win by default.

Well, obviously that’s impossible (some people would claim otherwise…) Normal mortals like me and you maybe can’t be psychic. But we can get close enough.

So what’s all this, then?

We as humans have a very powerful skill embedded into our brains- a skill that has spurred on the proliferation of our race and is responsible for our survival. It’s called pattern recognition.

Let’s first define what a pattern is:

n. an arrangement of repeated or corresponding parts

Basically, it’s a bunch of stuff that is the same (in some way).

If you went to the vending machine and you bought two Cokes, obviously they are going to look the same. If I put a red apple in front of you and a red strawberry in front of you, you can easily see that they are the same color.

Now the thing about patterns is that they are made up of things that repeat in a predictable manner.

I press a button, TV turns on. I press a button, TV turns off. I press a button, TV turns on. What happens the next time I press the button?

Your natural pattern recognition helps you recognize similar situations, intuitively and automatically. You don’t even have to think- you just know what’s going to happen next. The fact that you are reading this right now means you are using pattern recognition (words being a set of predictable objects- letters- you can derive meaning from).


So what was all that? WTF does that have to do with Soul Calibur? Why are you wasting my time, I have funny internet videos I could be watching!

I’m getting to the point, hold on.

The goal is to use our natural skills in pattern recognition to recognize and identify our opponent’s actions. We as humans cannot act in a totally random manner- we develop repetitive actions without even thinking and it is hard to do otherwise. With this in mind- if we can figure out what kind of pattern our opponent has, it will be like we are psychic. We will win by default.

The Japanese (or more accurately, the Virtua Fighter community) have a word for this. It’s called “yomi”.

(referring to this character here is technically not totally accurate. Don't tell anyone.)



The word literally means “reading”.

Like books.

Our own Sp1d3r mentions Yomi in The Calibur Primer. Go read it. Seriously, stop what you are doing and go read it. I’ll wait.



Witch! Witch!

Now, how do you conjure this “mystical power”?

The answer is through experience and time.

Experience is exposing yourself to many situations. If you have lots of experience, you can make connections and notice similarities in all of your battles. (Matchup data is a way to quantify experience and put it on paper.) If something worked in one situation, and a similar situation comes up, it’s a good idea to try what worked before. Isn’t it?

Time is a necessary factor. Everyone is different, no two people are going to play the same- so you need enough time to pick up on a person’s individual patterns. If you’ve ever played Ranked before and got beat by a ridiculous gimmick for three rounds straight- well, you lost because you did not have enough time. If you had more time, you could have started to notice patterns, and then attempt to change your actions (adaptation).

(After EVO, the standard 8WayRun ruleset was switched to Best of 5. If you watched the Summer Championship you might have noticed the amazing comebacks in a few matches- this was due to reading and adaptation. And- it could not have happened if the matches were best of 3. Those people would have lost before they had a chance to pick up on patterns and read their opponent.)

If you have enough experience and you have enough time you can make successful reads. It’s not special powers, it’s resources.


Well what do I do with this?

First, collect your matchup data. Studying other characters will reveal their optimal strategies (how they get their damage). Most likely, if you are playing against good players, they will want to land high damage maneuvers. If you know what these are you can counter them when they arise. (If you have not studied, you’re just going to get pwned and that’s that.)

Second, start playing longer sets. 1v1, 20-40 matches, maybe longer. I don’t care who you are, if you play that many times with the same person and they’re using the same character every time you are going to start noticing patterns in their play. Anybody can do this.

If you can’t quite get an exact read on your opponent- make educated guesses. Consider your opponent’s patterns, and consider the amount of reward they get for taking certain actions. “Follow the damage”- if 3B leads to half-life, maybe it would be a good idea to get ready to punish or step a possible 3B, especially if it has been abused for damage in the past.

You can also use pokes. Pokes are low-risk, low-reward moves; you won’t get killed for using them, but they don’t do a lot of damage, either. However, what pokes allow you to do is gauge your opponent’s response. Use AA and BB often, is it causing him to backstep? Maybe he doesn’t like being kicked in the legs and he responds by blocking low. Feel your opponent out and use your pokes to gather data- once you have enough information about your opponent, you can start countering him hard.

Everything in the game has a counter.

There is no such thing as an unbeatable tactic, move, or strategy. The problem is identifying this counter, and then using it in a timely manner. Research and experience will provide the answers. When you can read your opponent, and you can counter him fully and completely, you can stop him in his tracks and easily shift the momentum to your advantage.

In Closing

Playing long sets trains you to read your opponents. It’s just that simple. If you haven’t sat down and played repeatedly with someone, you really should start. If you have been putting in the work you will find the game takes on a new meaning when both players can start anticipating each other’s actions.

Now in tournaments, they obviously do not give you that much time. Since you are given only a small set of matches, you will have to make up for your lack of time with experience. Well-documented matchup data, being able to perform under pressure, observing your opponents’ morale and temperament- all experience (read- all a lot of losing and learning).

(Play RPGs before? More XP makes you level up. It’s that simple.)


The more you go to tournaments, the more likely you’ll be able to consistently place. If you don’t go at all, if you suddenly show up to one out of the blue, the odds are extremely likely that you’ll get peaced out. Case in point, stop trying to go to your first or second tournament and expecting to win. Go to learn.

 

"All warfare is based on deception.

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.

If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him.

If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.

If he is taking his ease, give him no rest.

If his forces are united, separate them.

Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

These military devices, leading to victory, must not be divulged beforehand.”

When you understand patterns, and pattern identification… if you have a sophisticated enough opponent, you can start presenting false patterns to him. More advanced players know this as “conditioning”, or actions specifically taken to provoke certain responses from the opponent.

When the opponent starts to react to your (false) pattern… you know exactly what he will do next.

In that moment, crush his will, break his spirit, and obliterate any chance of him ever winning again.

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If something works, keep doing it. If something doesn’t work, stop doing it. If spamming, ringouts, repeatedly throwing, and using obscene amounts of lows work, keep doing it.

When you are willing to do that which others are ashamed to do, therein lies an advantage.

- The Book of Lord Shang

Good players will read your spamming and counter extremely hard, which is why you’ll see good players use variety (because they don’t want to be read and countered). But you’ll also see good players spam- because if something works, you need to keep doing it.

Of course, the situation here is, will he do the same move again, or will he do something else? (… Mixups!)

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IAdoreBunnies has made a video about player patterns and mind games. He gives a few specific examples, and also talks about what I call the concept of "rhythm", which I'll speak on in the future.

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The game is about identifying your opponent’s tendencies and countering them. If you cannot identify what your opponent is doing, you lose. If you know what your opponent is doing but do not know how to counter it, you lose.


Belial, while doing guest commentary at the Summer Championship, said that the game is not necessarily about matchups, but adaptation. And he is right- once you know basics, matchups, etc.- everything there is to know about the game- once you are on that level, it’s not about who you pick, it’s about two minds on the field of battle. Who can change the fastest?

If you change too slowly, you’ll either be read, or you’ll be naturally defeated by your opponent’s strength. If you can change faster than your opponent, you won’t be predictable. But, if you change into a suboptimal strategy for the purposes of staying unpredictable, there is a chance that your efforts will be for naught and you will get paced out (which is a subset of risk and reward). Sometimes, even if the optimal strategy is obvious (do more 3B, get more damage) it may be worth going for anyway, as doing otherwise can lead to your opponent retaking the momentum and winning the match before you have a chance to adapt back. But, being predictable by only focusing on damage can lead to your own downfall as well, if your opponent is countering you fully and completely.

You can see how deep this gets. Analyzing the game is easy- you can put numbers all over it and make sense of it- but you can analyze people for years.

(If you find out how people work, PM me or something please. Thank you)

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Wait, I'm not done. I still have to speak about adaptation (closely related, but definitely not the same.)

The following is a mini-article. An article within an article. We need to go deeper.

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Being a player of habit will lead to your opponent predicting your every move. A static, rigid being cannot exist in this world for long. You must be fluid, shifting and bending to the forces around you. To win in all battles, you must conform to the highest efficiency in all situations.

You have a choice. You can change, or you can die.

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Adaptation is a simple concept. Do what comes naturally to you, and see what happens.

If it doesn’t work, do something else.

Now what is “something else”? It could be any number of things, really, and the decision to change what and where depends on the situation.

You could change up your mixup frequencies, maybe go low more often.
Perhaps change your timing- guard a little longer, or attack a little earlier.
Maybe you could switch from bulldog to turtle (aggressive to defensive).
You can even change your character, if you’re confident enough in your performance.

Do whatever you need to do to “fit” to your current situation.

It’s survival of the fittest- if you are prepared, or if you can make yourself prepared, you will win.

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Changing is difficult. Adaptation involves resisting your innate, natural impulses. Every cell in your body is screaming at you, but you must resist. By sheer force of will, you break your own pattern and counter the opponent.

It is not just a simple game anymore at this point. Adaptation can be physically painful.

“Feel the burn”, as they say.

It can be the most difficult thing you have ever done, to question yourself, to go against yourself. When you are fighting, you are not really fighting your opponent, you are fighting yourself. You must let go of the game, of the environment, of your thoughts. You must only think of one thing- the destruction of your opponent. Or, in other words,

Think only of cutting.

When your intent is pure and focused, you will warp and bend to meet your goal.

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Now you might’ve seen me recommend characters like Pyrrha and Mitsurugi before, and discourage other character choices when first starting out with the game. Why?

The thing is… Adaptation is a skill all by itself. It is something developed “outside” of the game, that stays with you when you turn it off. It has its own difficulties.

When you are playing the game, a lot more is happening than just pushing buttons. If you grasp the entire gravity of the situation, you are managing a million different things- your attacks, your combos, enemy movement, enemy patterns, timing, spacing, waking up safely, the list goes on and on.

You only have a limited amount of cognitive “room”. You can only think about so many things at once. In order to expand this, you have to train so much to the point that it becomes second nature- the moves come out, but you’re not thinking about them. An opening appears, and someone gets hit.

When you’re playing a complex character, this is difficult, especially if you still do not know the basics deeply. Because you do not understand concepts at a subconscious level, you have to consciously think about them in order to apply them. But- you also have to think about your own inputs and strategies, because you’re playing a complex character.

When you’re playing a basic character, your inputs are easy. They are so easy that some people would refer to them as “braindead”. This is the point- if you do not have to think about your character you can spend time thinking about something else- like the crucial importance of adapting to your opponent.

When you can get to the point where you understand the basics of the game and you have a solid foundation- you can pick whoever you want. Train until your complex responses come out naturally, without trying. Because you have experience with the basics, you can use those responses properly- it is then that you can get the full responsiveness out of a Cervantes or aPatroklos.

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Experience can help with adaptation. If you know all possible situations, then you can identify what your opponent is doing, and identify the counter to stop it. Of course, this means you must acquire matchup data often, and if you want good data, you need strong opponents!

Experience can also refer to a broader scenario- experience playing against humans. If you’ve seen many different situations in many different games over the course of years, you’ll be better at identifying patterns. You may not know the exact counter, but you can guess, which is better than nothing.

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You must have a sufficient stimulus to drive your adaptation. Again, it’s survival of the fittest.

If your situation does not require you to be excellent to survive- if being weak reasonably fits the situation- all you’ll be is mediocre.

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Lightning-quick adaptation wins tournaments. Period! If you can change your strategy after one set, that’s great. If you can change your strategy after two rounds, that’s even better.

You can either develop your adaptation speed, or you can amass so many offensive tricks and setups that your opponent won’t possibly be able to deal with them all. The thing is, one approach is timeless, while the other will only work if the secrets never get out.

That’s not likely, now that we have the internet. Gimmicks are necessary- don’t get me wrong!- but don’t let them become a crutch. Always fall back on your basics.

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Admittedly, even though I understand the theory, I’m not too good at change myself! If I was, they would have been interviewing me at EVO.

I’m interested to see if anyone has any training methodologies just for increasing their adaptation speed. The only approach I have is “brute-force”- gain lots of experience, throw yourself into tough situations repeatedly, and you’ll adapt in the end. Of course, if you can’t repeatedly show up at tournaments for whatever reason, you won’t gain the experience, and it won’t work…

 

Nice read Drake. That sums up the basis of being successful with Maxi and why he is so awesome to me.

Good reads=good damage for him.

Great reads=massive damage for him.

 

The US Street Fighter community has been using the term yomi for almost a decade now as well.

In his book "Playing to Win," SF player David Sirlin actually goes into the 3 layers of yomi:

• Layer 1: "You knew what he would do"
• Layer 2: "he knew that you knew "
• Layer 3: "you know that he knows that you know what he will do"

Beyond this, you simply end up looping back to Layer 1.

You can read the chapter on it here.

 

The Perfect Round!
If you save your ultimate attack/combo for the future. There's a high chance your final round will result in a perfect.
not to forget d3vs comment on the 3 layers. (Insert Sharringan reference here)

 

Drake is free to GIs

There, now you will adapt twice as fast.

 

And this people is the main tool to win, forget about everything else, you make good reads and the fight is yours. Great article Drake.

 

読みます。

 

Get some Unagi

 

Compared to every other topic that Drake has discussed upon, "Reading the Opponent" to me is definitely the toughest element to attempt to master. Mainly because it requires mastery in everything other facet of the game.

Reading an opponent is one thing, but being able to correctly act on the reads consistently feels like a brutal exam stressing everything.

 

When your cutting intent is too pure and focused, you may inadvertently expose yourself more than you should. What I am trying to say is that the intent to cut itself can be your weakness. It lends itself to predictability.

The key here as you mentioned is the timing - but the opponent might be expecting that swing and just waiting by guarding and observing yr pattern. The next time you swing, you can be sure there will be a set-up to bait you into swinging and making you whiff.

Besides adaptation, it is important to simply maintain a state of mental equilibrium in your focus. Not hasty to attack. Not slow to defend. Fast to move when needed and guarding solidly when the situation calls for it.

That being said, you have made a great post and I have enjoyed reading your posts. Nice work and thanks!

 

When your cutting intent is too pure and focused, you may inadvertently expose yourself more than you should. What I am trying to say is that the intent to cut itself can be your weakness. It lends itself to predictability.

The key here as you mentioned is the timing - but the opponent might be expecting that swing and just waiting by guarding and observing yr pattern. The next time you swing, you can be sure there will be a set-up to bait you into swinging and making you whiff.

Besides adaptation, it is important to simply maintain a state of mental equilibrium in your focus. Not hasty to attack. Not slow to defend. Fast to move when needed and guarding solidly when the situation calls for it.

That being said, you have made a great post and I have enjoyed reading your posts. Nice work and thanks!

I have no idea what you said but I would still kick your ass at Soulcalibur.

 

When your cutting intent is too pure and focused, you may inadvertently expose yourself more than you should. What I am trying to say is that the intent to cut itself can be your weakness. It lends itself to predictability.

"Think only of cutting" refers to doing whatever is needed to destroy the opponent. This includes defense, delays, non-action, and deceptive tactics.

It does not mean "attack".


If you do not attack at the right time, you will not achieve your goal. i.e. if you are focused on cutting, you will take steps to ensure that you will cut instead of rushing in blindly- which will not result in cutting at all, but rather your own destruction.



What I'm trying to say is- clear your mind. Free yourself from distractions and only think about the game.

Not about what time it is, not about that pretty girl you passed in the subway, not about what you had for lunch, not about the essay you have to write for your class, not about the flippant comment the TO made at you, not about the uncomfortable chair you're sitting in, not about what controller you're using, not about how your opponent feels, not about how you feel.

Think only of cutting.

 

But before you get to the zen stuff you have to get your ass beat hard and often. You gotta get mad and desperate to the point that you're ready to try anything.

 

You gotta get mad and desperate to the point that you're ready to try anything.

That's right.

In the deepest pits of despair, lies freedom. Reach the breaking point, and then let go.

Let go of the anger, hatred, emotion, honor, preconceived notions of right or wrong.

Let go and see reality for what it is.


What results is complete, utter ruthlessness. Pure focus and efficiency.




I would say that I would hope to have prevented others from suffering in hatred through these writings, but... It may be an impossibility. I have had my fair share of impotent rage in the past as well.

Shin Chrisean, if you're out there, peace be with you.

 

People have misconceptions about how to play the game. Insanity frees them from those! :D

People fight too seriously sometimes.. One round I would try just jumpkicks and 1K and see what happens..

 

• Layer 1: "You knew what he would do"
• Layer 2: "he knew that you knew "
• Layer 3: "you know that he knows that you know what he will do"

Reminds me a bit of fencing theory.

A counter-attack (not a parry/riposte; a single movement, like using a jumping attack to get guaranteed damage against a low) is an attack made to deflect your opponent's attack while attacking on your own -- you knew what they would do, and prepared a counter.

An attack in second intention is a committed attack that you expect to be countered -- and thus have prepared a counter-attack to the expected counter (so the opponent anticipates the low and jump-attacks, but you anticipate the jump counter and g~22A, cancelling the low into a sidestep...)

 

There is useable information is this essay. A little long for something that you hyperlinked, which essentially said the same thing. This is still good though and covers a differ view then the Yomi/Sirlin suttf.