Further Random Lizzy Strategy thoughts:
I had a chance to play against a friend some earlier this week, and have a few more thoughts on the Lizzy vs. X matchup.
* Weird properties on X's evasion. X's 44B evade->poke hits Lizardman if he's in his crawl stance, standing still. HOWEVER. It MISSES if lizardman is moving either forward or backward. I think it might also miss if you're doing LC A, but I didn't have a good chance to test this.
* X's low-throw can hit you out of the (WR)K, K, K triple kick on block. Sucky! (She can punish with other things too, so it's always been unsafe on block vs. her. But this makes it that much more dangerous.)
* If you're in crawl stance against X, and are up in her face, LC K is your friend. The weird back-up he does at start, plus the mini-jump in the middle of it seem to prevent X's low-throws while doing this move. This makes it one of the safest moves you have against X from LC. K also has the advantage that if she tries to jump over you with a regular hop, (Which she likes to do in order to use her back-turned stun-kick) you'll hit her out of the air.
* Long range poking with LC A is definitely a good strategy against X. This is a strategy I've been playing with lately, and it goes something like this: LC A hits low, is horizontal, is very fast, and has great range. It's unsafe on block, but only if you're too close. So if you can get at just about the edge of your LC A range, you force them to make some hard decisions. They can block low and be safe, but then they can't move. They can try to move out of range, but they can't attack low while moving out of range, so they have to guess when you're going to attack. They can try to attack YOU, but because you're at the edge of your (considerable) reach, they will probably have to get closer first, with you poking at their feet the whole time. If they try to attack from that range, then in most cases, the attack will be vertical, and slow enough that you can guard it with the scale shield. (LC A+B) Some characters do have tech jumps that you have to be careful of, (heck, lizzy himself has his fine, fine A+B) but even those are often slow enough that if they don't catch you on a whiffed LC A, you can usually respond with LC B or LC K to hit them out of the air, or LC A+B to guard. The net result is that you hover just outside of their reach, with most of their moves useless, and poke at their life bar until they get far enough away that it's not worth staying in stance any more. (If they get too far away, it's usually worth just exiting lizard stance, since from long range, they usually have enough time to set up more reliable ways to hurt you.)
So anyway, this strategy works ok against lots of characters (although less so vs. Asteroth, Zalsamael and other long reachers), but I find it particularly effective against X, who seems to otherwise have good anti-LC tools. It stops her low-throw threat, and her other attacks at that range are limited. She'll usually be forced to try rushing in and doing something fast. Her great wall (don't know the input, but she sort of slams her sword against you) is a respectable option since it is quick and advances and hits grounded. You can guard it with your scale shield (LC A+B) though, and if she whiffs, it has huge recovery. Her kicks are really her best option since they're fast, and you can't block them with your shield. They require her to get close though, so she'll usually take some damage getting there.
* Related to long range poking - If you ever find yourself in a match and just needing one hit or so to finish it - entering lizard crawl directly (236) and doing LC A is a long range low poke with surprising reach. From standing, by the time Lizzy gets low on all fours (which movies him forward slightly) and adding in LC A's already respectable reach, you can hit people who are actually kind of far away, and who almost certainly aren't expecting a long-distance low poke. (That tracks steppers. Bwah hah hah!)
-Montoli