Doesn't work like that caseh. Personal records and matches mean nothing. A tier list assumes tournament level competition not random online matchups. And thats where characters start to have issues.
Hilde for example seems underpowered. Her damage is down right sad, her CE blows, and she's had the issue she was always meant to have. Namely, she can punish step, or she can poke and set up crazy damage, but not both. Now some retooling of her playstyle is in order and maybe people will find a way to make that work. Even if they do that though it's hard to say she's on the same level as say nightmare who got a pretty decent CE and some great BE's.
So then because i've had more time with the game, some random thoughts on the cast-
My scale
Top
Good
Viable
Not viable.
aPat- good. Possibly top. His game revolves around the JF twister, but that's hardly an issue for me let alone a competent player. Once you get that down his ability to punish and counter hit becomes scary. His damage is high, his moves are pretty safe, and he's got viable things to spend meter on. His CE is low damage but 8 frames which is insanely fast, and his BE options mostly just up his damage and give him better pressure and punishes. Having combo throws means he can setup some nasty damage off an A+G or a command B+G throw as well.
Aeon- Seems flawed, but he could work. His guard gauge game is surprisingly good, but without meter his only stance is an afterthought at best. He lacks quick lows from an initial glance and his launchers are pretty slow and hugely unsafe. That said his damage is pretty nice. Shame about his BBB. Maybe viable.
Algol- Possibly very good. Algol i think is the easiest example of a meter dependent character. Without meter it seems like his gameplan is a little sub par. Basically space/fight to set up bubbles. His damage is ok without meter. WITH meter though algol is a beast. His damage goes through the roof and his setups become just as nasty. I can easily see algol as the character who routinely loses the first two rounds, only to sweep back thanks to his crazy damage now that he's got the meter to kill with. He'll only get better as people figure out how to manage his meter in combo's and setups better.
Asta- Better than i hoped for. Probably viable. Possibly good. I don't think asta will wind up in top, but after screwing around with him I think he's got enough of a viable game given the changes he's gotten to still be a threat. He's going to suffer as people figure out his gimmicks, but it seems his fundamentals are solid enough to get around that. It's just the usual issue for a SC grappler where a ton of his game and damage will be decided off an A or B break. I do hate that his CE seems so extremely niche. The stupid white glow at his feet makes it worthless as a substitution for his A or B command throws.
Cervantes- iGDR, good damage, and a useful CE. No doubt he'll be viable and I wouldn't be surprised if he wound up in top tier. He does seem like one of the characters hurt the most from the loss of portions of his movelist, but I don't think that's going to hurt him so much we won't be seeing everyones favorite pirate.
Damp- I don't have him since i didn't bother to buy from best buy. That said from what i've seen....gonna guess he's just a tad gimmicky.
Devil jin- I can still see him being banned in the end. Not sure if he should be, but he's got enough going for him with enough drama around it that it's probably just not worth allowing him. He's more than good enough to hit high tier though.
Ezio- I honestly don't know. He seems viable. That's about all i've got from him so far. He does feel unsafe, but I haven't had enough time with him to test, and i'm not sure how he deals with some of the better tactics.
Hilde- already mentioned above but i'm not even sure if she'll be a viable choice. She's got so much going against her and I haven't seen anything she can do that others don't do better. Her gimmick got kicked in the teeth HARD.
Ivy- I'm kinda shocked so far at how bad she is. Ivy's always been at least somewhat good forever it feels like. Range + command grab is a nice combo. This Ivy however seems to suffer from having a terrible CE(stupid white glow again), and while i'm glad she doesn't have a 50 page move list, I'm not sure it actually works at the end of the day. I'm hoping someone can show us she's still a monster, but as of right now I'd say she's not viable.
Lexia- Viable. Probably top or near it. Good meter usage, good mixup, good damage, good setups. Not much more to say except she even seems remarkably safe.
Maxi- I've never understood maxi and i'm not going to pretend I do now. All i know is i've heard he's better than he has been so yay for that, and i've seen him taking some tournaments. From what I do understand we'll know how good he really is in two months or so when people have had time to sit down and really figure out how good all his setups are, and which ones can be easily dealt with.
Mitsu- Viable...maybe. His meter is fine and while he's not what he once was I don't think it's impossible to win with him. That said he strikes me as one of the most screwed members of the cast thanks to the 8G glitch.
Natsu- Good. Yeah i expect her to drop a little as people manage her gimmicks better, but dear god the damage she's putting out is just silly. And she can still play a safe and slower paced game if she needs to.
Nightmare- Viable. Possibly even good. Nighty seems to be a gimmick machine still but his RO game is scary, especially with meter, and the damage he puts out is just mean. It won't take too many wrong guesses for him to tear you in half. He's even got a nasty guard game.
Patro- Good. Easy damage off of decent moves. Good meter options. Nice command throw. Just solid all around. I don't see him winding up in top, but I wouldn't be that surprised if it happened.
Pyrra- Top most likely. 236B! Who knew. She's a sister(more so than her brother) and thus awesome. Really not much more to say except she does seem hurt by 8G, so that might change things depending on what happens there.
O pyrra- Top again. Sister syndrome + damage.
Ralph- Viable? Maybe? I really don't know. Ralphs always struck me as having a slightly different style than the standard SC character, but he's usually wound up with one or two flaws that just make him inferior. I'm not sure if he's got all the tools he needs this time. I am at least worried about his low game.
Sieg- Maybe viable. He just annoys me because i have little doubt he'd actually be pretty decent if he didn't do fucking terrible damage. I have no idea why he puts out such small pain for a good hit, and his good damage seems to only come from risky setups. Nightmare is somewhat similar but he's got great damage off of everything.
Tira- Fuck if i know. I'm guessing viable. Her damage seems ok, but as always her biggest issue is stance management, and jolly seems to still suck. Thankfully she can at least blow meter to get out of jolly and start putting out pain. oh and she's still one of 2 characters who can kill herself, but sadly she doesn't do it off a crazy strong unblockable.
Viola- It's still too early. I see where a lot of people are coming from when they complain about her setups and damage, but I still think she's got enough depth that there's tricks to figure out yet. If things don't change from today...probably not viable, but even then i'm not sure.
Voldo- Haven't had time to even look for more than a few minutes. I'd guess at least viable from what i've seen. Dunno if he'll climb higher than that. His CE seems pretty meh, but i feel like i'm missing something.
Xiba- Good, possibly top. Good CE, good meter usage, nice damage. Xiba just screams solid to me. Only issue is he might be too unsafe vs the top.
Yoshi- good? I've never been good at yoshi. Seems alright and he's still got his stance games and gazillion gimmicks. That said the nerf to nut punch might hurt him more than i know.
ZWEI- pretty much see viola.
Things i'd really like to happen in a patch-
Remove 8G
Small nerf to natsu dmg.
Buffs to sieg, ivy, hilde and maybe a rework of certain viola and ZWEI mechanics.