His guard pressure is pretty high, so turtling too much gets your guard burst'd. Pick up on the individual player habits as soon as you can. Quickstep and punish if they use 3B a lot, use tech crouch moves if they like to whore out agA. Some other specific attacks you can punish fairly easily if you recognize them:
3A2A: Try a jump B or jump K attack with a 9 input, many characters will be able to jump over it and smack him out of it.
A+B: Grab the mofo, stab his toes, or block and punish since it's so negative(-20 is enough to punish with any decent launcher).
1A, FC A+G, FC B+G, 2[K]: Block all forms of 1A unless your guard is about to pop, block/jump/break his FC throws, jump 2[K]. Never block low on anticipation, you'll eat his much nastier mids if you do.
1K: If your health isn't critically low, jump out of the way. Don't block it unless you're one poke away from death because he's setting you up for a low/mid/throw mixup at that range and all his other options are *MUCH* scarier than 1K(FC 3B, RO throws, GS B...).
Grim Stride: Poke the mofo out of it with your best fast low if you expect him to do it.
CE: Never do anything that leaves you recovering long enough to be hit by it and commit to your first choice of action immediately. If you second guess yourself, you'll eat the full damage of it. The guy is on the defensive? Be ready to throw when he has a full bar and gets off the ground, a ton of bad-to-mediocre Nightmare players love using it on wakeup as a desperation move.
4KK, 4KkA+B+K: Crouch the second hit, immediately punish with your choice of FC/WS attacks. Punish faster if he does the BE version, the third and fourth hits strike mid and lead to nasty followups(if not an RO).
GS kA+B+K: If he knocks you down, immediately tech to the side and block the first hit. After blocking the irst hit, crouch the attack throw and attack with your favor FC/WS attack while he's recovering. Careful not to get hit by the attack throw though, it has a deceptively lengthy period of time when you can still be hit by it while trying to punish it. If he knocks you down in a corner though, he can use this attack as many times as his meter will allow and there is nothing you can do about it.
