Figured I'd make a quick post about my thoughts and what I learned from playing NM at Texas Showdown. I know im a little late and also if I repeat some things that were already known sorry I haven't read through this entire thread.
2A
So with 3K getting a huge nerf and becoming very linear I believe 2A will be his primary way to kill step upclose this time around. It seems to have been buffed. It feels faster than it was in SCV and it also hits grounded now. I found this when I comboed counter hit K into 2A. 2A always tracked really well in SCV but there was no reason to use it over 1K and 3K. Another reason I think 2A will be the primary step killer up close is that 2K(his old 1K) feels like its ability to kill step has been reduced, at least at tip range. 2K whiffed in places where it would've caught step in SCV. 2A felt much better at keeping people in check.
NLS KK
So another thing I found was that 22B transitions into NLS and near the edge it will combo in KK. This was pretty hype when I landed it on
@coolcmcgee for a reverse RO. I think there's potential here for reverse ring outs from multiple angles as well as wall splats with 22B.
K/6K
So his new 5K is his 6K from older games like SCV and his new 6K is similar in that its a high over head punch but it moves NM forward for more range, is slower, and has Terror Charge armor on it. K seems to be his fastest move, if i had to guess its probably between i13 and i14. I was able to punish Sophie's 66A with it which is nice. 5K still acts like 6K in SCV in that it gives a knockdown for a followup on CH, 1A is tech trap and combos into GS B. 6K knocks down on normal hit but i dont think you can combo into it. 2K or 2A might but I didnt actually test this. On CH 6K gives you a lethal hit and I was using 1A as a follow up at first but then found that 2A+B also works and gives you Terror Charge.
CE
Though his CE was drastically buffed aesthetically it seems to have been nerfed functionally as far as I can tell. It used to be that it GIed everything on impact in SCV but now its a lot more similar to soulwave in that it has to armor first and then GI. So if a move recovers quick enough like a 2A, your opponent is able to block. This actually happened to me a couple of times. That said it seems a lot safer than other CEs on block at least.
aB
aB seems like a really good new move. It functions similarly to sieg's B6, its a good fast safe mid but is pretty linear. It also crumple stuns on hit and allows for a 2K follow up upclose. Its not as fast as sieg's B6 but its his fastest ranged mid.
Speculation
My early thoughts on the meta are that you will have to choose between Terror Charge setups and maximizing damage and Oki. For example 3B NSS aB or aGa on hit can potentially give a free soulwave for Terror Charge entry without the fear of a punish but you'll be sacrificing oki. It'll be interesting to see how things pan out .The 22B NLS KK RO got me thinking about other potential RO combos. I'm thinking it's possible that 3B NSS can transition into NLS KK for ROs and wall splats seeing as 3B NSS GS K is still a combo but is useless for damage and ROs without SC/TC. Hopefully people attending Combo Breaker will be able to test some of these things. NM still seems to struggle upclose IMO even in TC/SC, playing lame as fuck is the way to go I think.
That said here's like the only footage of NM play at Texas Showdown. It was me as NM vs LinkRKC's sophie. This MU feels the same as ever lol. But it is obviously way too early to tell how MUs will turn out. I think MU knowledge is super important for NM to do well.
WHEN'S SC6?!?!?