select stage study

[RTD]

With Soul Calibur 4 having rings outs, being able to select the stage that you want is critical.
I like to see if there is a way to increase the chances of picking a particular stage by applying some probability concepts.

First off, lets see if we can confirm the following:
From my experience, it seems like random stage select is purely random and the person who gets to pick the stage is purely random.

Even so, there might be a way to increase the chances of getting a particular set - walls, small, big - of stages.
I'm wondering if you can apply the following logic to achieve this goal.

Let's focus on a scenario in which you want to select a stage with no walls.
The first thing you do to achieve this is to unlock all of the stages to increase your chances of selecting a stage without walls.

That's because the MAJORITY of the locked stages have no walls.

Besides this, keep in mind that in Soul Calibur 4, there are:
Stages with walls: ~%70-80
Stages without walls: ~%20

That means that when selecting a stage, all you have to do is avoid selecting %20 of the stages with walls.

So let's consider this scenario for selecting a stage without walls....

You select your character and then Soul Calibur goes through the pool of stages randomly. At this time, you wait until you see a stage with a wall and then you press X to select the stage.

**Soul Calibur selects a stage with no walls.**

What's the probability logic behind this scenario...

Simple, it's the assumption that the probability of selecting a stage with no walls will be higher since Soul Calibur has RECENTLY generated a stage with walls in the selection pool.

This is just a thought. What do you guys think?

 

[Twelve]

You select your character and then Soul Calibur goes through the pool of stages randomly. At this time, you wait until you see a stage with a wall and then you press X to select the stage.

**Soul Calibur selects a stage with no walls.**

What's the probability logic behind this scenario...

Simple, it's the assumption that the probability of selecting a stage with no walls will be higher since Soul Calibur has RECENTLY generated a stage with walls in the selection pool.

This is just a thought. What do you guys think?

I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

But if SC is picking stages with a truly random (or random enough) function, it doesn't really matter what you do. And creating a pretty random function is trivially easy, so it's not unlikely.

If it's using something like the default C library random function, then you're always going to get the stages in some kind of order. And there's still nothing you can really do to effect it

 

[SBA]

actually there hav been times , wen i hav been able to stop the cursor rite on the exact level i wanted, but it called for extreme reflexes....or really good luck....but if u dnt hav either, just select the damn stage manually lol

 

[pineapplejuice]

what the hell is this?!?! you can stop random on the stage you want, just pretend your doing tifas limit breaks. but really just pick the stage you want, i dont think anyone cares. i wish this game had a pure white stage, no walls, floor, edge's nothing, that would be nice.

 

[Y-Disciple]

The icon for random doesn't mean anything, if I'm correct. It's just like a gif or something but selecting it is actually random.

 

[RTD]

what the hell is this?!?! you can stop random on the stage you want, just pretend your doing tifas limit breaks. but really just pick the stage you want, i dont think anyone cares. i wish this game had a pure white stage, no walls, floor, edge's nothing, that would be nice.

Well, in most tournaments I know, you can't select the stage manually. And people actually do care because there are characters that have a better RO game than others.

 

[andur]

First off, lets see if we can confirm the following:
From my experience, it seems like random stage select is purely random and the person who gets to pick the stage is purely random.

...

So let's consider this scenario for selecting a stage without walls....

You select your character and then Soul Calibur goes through the pool of stages randomly. At this time, you wait until you see a stage with a wall and then you press X to select the stage.

**Soul Calibur selects a stage with no walls.**

What's the probability logic behind this scenario...

Simple, it's the assumption that the probability of selecting a stage with no walls will be higher since Soul Calibur has RECENTLY generated a stage with walls in the selection pool.

This is just a thought. What do you guys think?

The person who picks the stage is not random.

As for your random stage selection theory, that is only true if the random stage random number generator is programmed not to choose the same stage twice in a row. Which I suppose you could determine by recording it for a long time and then flipping through it and see if a stage ever is displayed twice as long as normal (though you can only prove that repeats are allowed with this method).

Still it would be pointless, since if you can react fast enough to pick the next stage upon seeing a walled stage, you would be able to react fast enough to accept a non-walled stage when it comes up.

 

[RTD]

The person who picks the stage is not random.

I know that the winner chooses the stage...

but what about at the character select screen. How is it determined who picks the stage?

 

[Mikey_R]

but what about at the character select screen. How is it determined who picks the stage?

If its offline its player one for the first one after that its the player thats winning.

Online its the challenger meaning if you host a room you will never pick a stage or if your winning in player matches you will never pick a stage either.

 

[spongebob]

The icon for random doesn't mean anything, if I'm correct. It's just like a gif or something but selecting it is actually random.

oh thats sumthing i didn't know. Then why is ive heard of tournaments having blind random stage picking? Like if the icon did mean sumthing and went in a set order then say sum1 could figure out when you see this stage press select as quickly as you can and ure usally going to get this stage.

 

[MONEYMUFFINS]

Stop playing broken.

 

[ZEDONIUS]

I have had random pick the stage on the picture many times.