I knew that raph does quite well against sieg. Would you say its an even matchup?
I feel siegs whiffs more in this MU than in any other because i step/2_8B+K a lot more to abuse his weaknesses.
But then there is also the damage difference...
Might be even, might be 6:4 for Raphael. A few bullet points:
Raphael is very good at forcing whiffs. Siegfried has his own problems whiffing. Put the two together and you end up being very cautious about using certain moves, because not only can Raphael make you whiff, but he can punish you for whiffing at nearly any range with 236B or 66(B).
Raphael excels at long range and can do well at close range. Siegfried does best at mid range, but even there Raphael has tools of his own - however, most of Raphael's mid range tools are very linear.
Raphael can outpoke you. Most characters can already do this against Siegfried, but Raphael has a 2A that might as well be Virtua Fighter 2P - it's very good. He also has a few very fast, very annoying lows - 33B, 11B, 11K, 2K - that will end up frustrating you very quickly.
Raphael has a good guard crush game. The think is, for him to get any real damage off of it, he has to break your guard with a move that enters Preparation - usually 3(B).
Raphael cannot hurt you badly for stepping outside of close range. At mid and long range, he has only 66A. Generally he'll either close the distance and poke some more, or hang back and wait for you to do something. Up close, however, stepping is extremely unwise, as 44A(B) kills your step, puts him in Preparation, and leaves you BT. He can also throw out 3A with impunity, and on Counter Hit, you're forced to stand still unless you yomi a slow move. Be smart about your movement.
Raphael doesn't do a lot of damage, but he has the means to do consistent amounts of little damage. Realize that his pokes are not necessarily threatening, but they add up extremely quickly, so making big guesses is important to stay ahead of him.
Raphael can punish everything you do that's -12 or worse and can enter into Preparation off of it. His CE can punish things that are -10, which means a blocked stance entrance guarantees Raphael a CE. If you're at the end of a round or match, and he has meter, don't enter a stance on block and try to be cute.
That's about all I can think of. You never really run into Raphael in any setting, and there are maybe four or five Raphael players that use him competitively, so he's not something to worry about so much as he's something to be prepared for.