I've hit a stone wall versus an Astaroth player friend of mine. He's definitely a solid player but after hundreds of matches it is looking kind of grim. It's coming down to the point where I feel like Siegfried lacks tools to deal with Astaroth.
Tools in Sieg's favour:
WR (B), SCH B is an NC against astaroth:
-effective duck punishment and decent damage options off of it and that's pretty much it.
3B
-Can be used for bullshit tip damage / oki game.
B6
-Maybe catch some back step or bullshit damage in the war of attrition.
agA
-Typical usages for whiff punishment/pressure; can be TCed by astaroth relatively easily and almost inadvertenlty
Sieg's TC game isn't as strong as in SC4, which means astaroth can throw out a lot more command throws
22BB/22BB4SCH
-Solid tool all around to build some guard damage if they don't want to step 22BB4, SCH B. Useful after evading some moves like Asta 66K/ 22B
-On block, he can get FC 3K at close range I believe, but that's not very scary
22A
-Decent move, could be be better with more TC; doesn't space asta very well though due to relatively short range in the match up.
SCH mix-ups post 3B:
-Asta can 66K under SCH A
-Asta can step SCH B, and punish with 22B
-The player I have played against began to wisely to favour stepping, the minimal damage off of one SCH A before they get pushed out is nothing compared to the awesome damage off of 22B BE.
-You can make asta pay for using 66K with SCH B for quite a bit of damage; smartstaroths will not use 66K.
Siegfried guard pressure?
-While handy against other characters, you can't tack on guard damage with SCH Bs/agAs very easily against astaroth.
-Way too risky to try and break with (B) since you're asking to be 22Bed; the good news is if you have astaroth flashing red they might go into panic mode and eat damage trying to evade your moves.
Backstep: Now lethally useless against astaroth.
Tool's in Astaroth's favour:
22B, if you get stepped with this it leads to decent damage and guarantees another 22B force block vs grounded for guard break pressure.
-This move can be stepped on reaction, the timing window is a little tight, but if astaroth guesses right on one of your mix-ups he gets hefty damage.
-22B BE, this move is impossible to step at close range, even if you run past astaroth with a move he will turn around and hit you. I don't understand why.
-I've started to just guard this move against standing, but the pay-off is pretty pitiful at mid-long range and if I mess up I go flying.
-If you sit there trying to wait for it, he also could just run up and throw you from your entire control zone away!
-Edit, this move cannot be just guarded at minimum/short range due to astaroth technically stepping to the side/behind your character. Just guarding becomes regular guarding as your character turns; just guarding is only possible at midrange giving you either 3B combo or 3B tip stun to maybe a combo.
Command Throws:
-Why can he potentially get 107 damage midscreen off of an A throw (clean hit + BE)? Now with buffed throw range.
-Why can he get 97 damage midscreen and way more near a wall off a B throw?
44A:
-This is a powerful tool since it kills both step, hits mid and, TCs, and is quite safe if used at mid-range. The only thing that helps is if they try and do something afterwards like 66K you can hit them out with 3(B), unfortunately this can be used at a range where agA cannot kill step.
-The player I play against no longer uses 44(A), even if I did SBH aGI it, at mid-range SBH B is too far to connect.
66K:
-Actually not a huge deal for siegfried, he has a lot of good moves to deal with this. E.g 3(B), SCH B, 3A
-Also steppable, Astaroth players would be wise not to rely on this against siegfried since he can step punish it pretty well with 22BB/22BB4
-66K BE can go through 3B now, because namco figured astaroth needed to be better. The second hit is really easy to JG and guarantees a 3(B), not a 1B however.
-66(K) if you JG this at tip, you can beat out anything the asta player may have buffered with 3(B); from a match I recall my 1B trading with an asta command grab though.
6B CH, or post guardbreak:
97 or so damage mid-screen, losing against a breakable wall, low wall, basically an entire health bar in a lot of other circumstances and he builds insane meter in the process.
Overall:
The range astaroth can play at prevents him from having to deal with any mildly scary sieg pressure; if you start using beastly +2 advantage with i15 moves for pressure asta can just beat out all options with 66k BE (except for Sieg's 66kBE because it multi-hits). SBH aGI becomes useless, you're forced to JG 44A, and step or JG 22B, you cannot step 22B BE. Throws are obviously a guessing game, if you can predict one really well you get SBH TC, SBH B - if you do it like a human you get NC WR (B), SCH B for a decent 67 damage.
Your real hope is to catch them with agA/3A while they step and fish for a 22B, or 3B if they try to bullrush; it's a pretty lame mix-up between both players.
It may also be in the Sieg player's best interest to avoid walls in general since asta can get massive damage and ridiculous ROs with 63214B+G, 22B BE, Air throw in a pretty wide arc/long-distance.
Winning with Siegfried:
4 WR (B), SCH Bs
3-2ish 3(B), SCH kBE, agAs (less with wall combos)
5 throws
5 3A. 2A+Bs/33Bs
3.5 1Bs
6-4 iagAs (if you step-kill/land them near a wall you can get pretty solid damage)
2.5-2 SBH Bs: good luck breaking asta guard though.
4-3 22BBs (plus you can blow some meter if you want to get some agA wall combos)
Winning with Astaroth
4-5 22Bs
2.5-1 22b BEs (less near a wall)
2.5-1 command throws (less near a wall)
A lot of 44As but that is a spacing tool
Also, asta 1K RO is lame, because he needed more options near a ring edge.
Astaroth CE is also really good now if you don't predict it. And for 1.5 meter total can probably ring you out really easily.
So what am I missing? Is it just a guessing game between asta and Sieg where the Sieg player is forced to win more 50/50s than astaroth? Are there any other tools? One consideration is to throw out more RSH bullshit moves; he can punish RSH K with a crouch throw and gets a standing throw mix-up post RSH B. SSH is basically trash.
Tentative conclusion?
Figure out how to play Nightmare or Hilde against astaroth.