Nope it's not all speculation, we speculate when we lack sufficient information. We have plenty of videos to work on...so somethings are open for analysis. He might or might not have a good tech trap game. I haven't seen it. I am only discussing things we have seen,.
You were generalising and making an absolute when it is far from an absolute when you said he is "
definitely a meter based character". You called Cupui out on his speculation, so I am calling you out on your speculation. He was making a speculation based on that videos which Nightmare's WS B went unpunished on block. You are making your speculation based on the videos you have seen. However, the videos do not show everything, you should know this. We still lack sufficient information to make definite conclusions. As such, what you were talking about are still speculations and opinions, not definitive conclusions.
He still has other options to ringout (anything with ibA, iagA, WS AA, B+G, FC B+G etc) and still has other options to wallsplat without meter. Most characters now need meter to unlock their maximum damage output anyway so its no different than most of the SC5 cast.
You say a lot of his damage doesn't come from meter, but aside from 2A you're only talking about how meter expands his mixups. And although BE33B being uninterruptable is a plus, you can still just block or JG, and possibly quick step it. I haven't seen a BE33B into GS A yet.
I was talking about his option game by that point, if you really want me to list every single good move which he gets damage from without using meter, please tell me. Also if you want me to break up my replies into easy to read sections just for you, please tell me as well.
JG at this moment is extremely difficult to do and to line up the punish from JG in the heat of battle is very difficult to do. The brave edge from 33B is the follow up you saw, there should not be GS A from 33B BE. What will be interesting is if 33B BE can be activated on reaction, that would make it very scary for your opponent (logical speculation once again). And quick stepping etc will not be an option because if its uninterruptable, it should catch any and all follow-ups; and even if it doesn't, normal 33B6 options should beat out the quickstep and block defense.
NM's step was always fast. He was always a whiff punishment character, this hasn't really changed much. I don't know what you mean by safer step. As far as mixups, his still a throw/mid based character. The biggest plus is that 1A is faster, which makes his anti step even better.
So how can you say hes a meter based character then?
I've explained it many times previously (maybe not in layman's terms); his backstep now has a larger distance and quicker recovery frames. In SC4 Nightmare's backstep used to be piddly and had slow recovery frames which greatly affected his ability to space his opponents and cause whiffs.
Ironically, the 2 characters with excellent backsteps and the move set to take advantage of them were S tier (Ivy and Hilde).
If you go "how can you prove this?" however, its difficult cause you see it based on experience and you'll have to take my word on it.
I call him a meter character because GSKK is gone. Which is a huge huge nerf. From WRB, from 3B, from 1A, from CH6K, etc. Replacing that is a slower version that requires meter to pick up the opponent for ringouts and wall carries. So for any potential tech traps or wall combos, you need meter for maximum damage. Considering that NM is a single hit explosive damage dealer.
I don't think its a huge nerf in the grand scheme of things because a lot of the rest of the cast has lost things which were vital to them (TAS B, Relic etc). At least Nightmare still has the option to ring out using meter. But how this will affect him is all speculation so its impossible to see if its a nerf or a buff, we do not know what properties Nightmare has on GS K BE yet. All i know is that its a cool looking move with potential.
And GS B has the potential to replace GS KK in the damage dealing sections of the above moves without using meter ( logical speculation once again. Though I have seen it in several videos, we do not know whether you can tech out of those moves yet).