–Alrighty,
So I've decided to start keeping track of roster predictions until release. My guesses are based on the absolute worst-case scenario (to keep expectations tempered and realistic), which means making the following assumptions:
- The leaks are not (entirely) reliable. We've already seen that the source claiming a switch port was incorrect. I know other sources are more reliable as they've correctly predicted the dual blade newcomer, but for the sake of parsimony I will assume they're all wrong until proven otherwise.
- Twenty (20) characters on release. Okubo has insisted that the current UI does not represent the final product, but for all we know those comments could be referring to DLC.
Again, keep in mind this is a worst-case scenario based solely on what little we know for sure. With that out of the way, here's a composite of people's predictions for the roster:
Confirmed - These characters are known to be in the game. Darth Maul is a placeholder graphic for the dual-blade newcomer.
- Mitsurugi
- Sophitia
- Dual-Blade newcomer
Absolute Certainty - These characters have been in every numbered installment of the Soul Calibur series, as well as most spinoffs, and are crucial to its brand recognition. This list also includes a guest character since it's basically been confirmed by Okubo (Ezio graphic is a placeholder for the time being).
- Ivy
- Nightmare
- Voldo
- Maxi
- Kilik
- Astaroth
- Cervantes
- Guest
Fairly Certain - These characters are also staples of the series, are extremely popular, and play an important role in the story this game is known to tell. I included yoshi here and not above because he's missing in some spinoffs and he's technically a Tekken character before a SC character, although I'd say he's a staple at this point.
Somewhat Likely - These characters are also very popular, appear in most games, and placed very high in the infamous Facebook poll. Their inclusion is primarily contingent on the scope of this reboot –that is to say, whether it will focus exclusively on the first game or also include parts of SC2 and 3. I've also included lizardman here (even though I personally think he's a staple and should be higher) because he placed relatively low in the popularity poll.
- Siegfried
- Raphael
- Tira
- Talim
- Lizardman/Aeon
Long Shots - These characters have not been in most games, but are popular and unique enough to warrant their inclusion. For the time being there's only one spot in this category, and it was highly contested between many interesting characters with a ton of potential. However, given his apparent popularity, I've chosen to give the remaining roster spot to the following character for now:
There are also characters like Hwang, Seung Mina, Rock, Cassandra, and Setsuka that are popular and would make sense with the limited knowledge of the game we have at this point, but I only had 20 slots to work with here and I've given priority to staples. I also know it's unrealistic to expect only one newcomer (especially with what we know from the leaks), but I needed some constraints to work with in the absence of data and I think the assumptions listed above make sense for now.
In my opinion both blue and green (along with Aeon and Siegfried) are pretty much guaranteed. In fact, if we do end up getting more than 20 characters I'd say all of these except for Zas are locks. It is my personal hope that 20 characters is just the base roster before unlocking the rest in story mode. However, I don't think it's an accident that they showed 20 slots. It is entirely possible that we get 20 characters on release and 8 as DLC, adding up to the alleged 28. At this point we have no way of knowing.
I'm open to comments and criticisms here. I intend to keep updating this as we learn more about the game.
