(Mods: I didn't see a post like this on this sub-forum. Please advise if my post needs to be moved).
So I've been poring over the leaks, official releases, and speculation on this game for the past month or so; based on everything I've read, here's my thought process on the most important question regarding SCVI: Who's in, and who's out:
Confirmed:
-Groh
-Ivy
-Kilik
-Mitsurugi
-Nightmare
-Sophitia
-Xianghua
-Zasalamel
-One or more guest characters
-One or more additional new characters
Guaranteed (100% chance):
-Talim
-Voldo
-Taki
Basically Guaranteed (95% chance):
-Yoshimitsu
-Maxi
Highly likely (80% chance):
-Cervantes
-Lizardman
Likely (70% chance):
-Asteroth
-Cassandra
-Yun-Sung
-Rafael
Coin flip (50% chance):
-Hilde
-Hwang
-Rock
-Seong Mi-na
-Setsuka
-Sigfried
-Tira
Would be surprised (30% chance):
-Amy
-Edge Master
Would be shocked (10% chance):
-Dampierre
-Inferno/Soul Edge
-Li Long
Guaranteed not happening (0% chance):
-Abyss
-Algol
-Charade
-Elysium
-Leixia
-Natsu
-Necrid
-Night Terror
-Ocladan
-Patroklos
-Pyrrha
-Seong Han-Myeong
-Viola
-Xiba
Notes:
-The smallest size for the base roster that's been rumored is 22. Soul Calibur 4 only introduced 2 new characters when it came out- SC5 had a staggering 10 new characters. It seems safe to assume, given this is a reboot, that Bandai-Namco are more likely to go the 4 route, meaning we can expect 2, maybe 3 new characters along with 1-2 guest characters (per console). So, assuming we get 5 new/guest characters, plus the seven already confirmed returning characters, at a minimum there are 10 more veterans to be announced before launch. Based on my breakdown above, I'd say you should feel basically certain we will get Talim, Voldo, Taki, Yoshimitsu and Maxi. You should also feel pretty safe if you're a Cervantes or Lizardman fan. Where it gets dicey is if you love any of the following:
-Asteroth
-Cassandra
-Yun-Sung
-Rafael
-Hilde
-Hwang
-Rock
-Seong Mi-na
-Setsuka
-Sigfried
-Tira
There are 11 of these guys and only 3 slots left, once you account for the characters previously mentioned. We could be getting one or two more at launch, and could see up to six more as DLC, but even then that means not everyone is getting in. As a Rafael main, for example, this leaves me incredibly angsty.
Who do you think will make the cut? By way of conclusion, here's my best guess as to who will be on the final roster:
-Groh (confirmed)
-Ivy (confirmed)
-Kilik (confirmed)
-Mitsurugi (confirmed)
-Nightmare (confirmed)
-Sophitia (confirmed)
-Xianghua (confirmed)
-Zasalamel (confirmed)
-New Char (100% at least one more)
-New Char (very likely at least two more)
-Guest Char (100% a universal guest)
-Guest Char (100% at least one console exclusive per)
-Voldo (Obvious)
-Yoshimitsu (Obvious)
-Talim (She's in, stop worrying Talim mains. She's arguably the most popular char in the franchise and always comes out on top in popularity polls. She's in.)
-Taki (She's in, they'd be insane to repeat V's mistake.)
-Maxi (heavily rumored, pretty obvious.)
-Cervantes (heavily rumored, inclusion of Ivy makes him a no-brainer. Got to at least be guaranteed as DLC)
-Lizardman (Pretty obvious. the series has a bit of a glut of sword+shield users, but Liz is a pretty serious staple.)
-Asteroth (heavily rumored, inclusion of Maxi makes him an obvious choice, series staple, they don't have enough big, slow power fighters. I'm pretty confident on him).
-Yun-Sung (I'd say its pretty fair to guarantee you're gonna get him or Hwang, and while I'd probably prefer Hwang, Yun-Sung has broader name recognition. Yun-Sung feels like the better bet).
-Rafael (COME ON BANDAI-NAMCO. I know he doesn't win your dumb facebook popularity contests, but the guy is as series staple as it gets. His fighting style is unique (Yes, Amy, but there's no way they're including Amy and not Raf, so if they're just including one the style is unique), he's an iconic part of the roster, and I'll be so god-damn sad if he doesn't make it. Don't break my heart!)
Justification on some who I left out:
-Cassandra: This was easily the hardest call to make, and I would be completely un-surprised if I'm wrong and she ends up in the base game. She has to be at least DLC- She's incredibly iconic to the series and plays much more differently from Sophie then casuals give her credit for. I just think that, if it comes down to 22 characters, and they've already put in two sword/shields (Sophie and Liz), that might be enough for them to keep her out.
-Hilde: This was a "they introduced her too late in the timeline for her to show" argument. That being said, I doubt they are gonna be all that hard and fast on keeping to the timeline (beyond excluding all the V kiddies), so I could definitely see Hilde making it in.
-Hwang: See Yun-Sung.
-Rock: Lack the staple factor. Would love to see him though.
Song Mi-na: Staple, but a little derivative of Kilik. Solid DLC chances at a minimum though.
Setsuka: Would have made her less likely but then Zas rolled up and upset everyone's expectations. Total coin-flip on her.
Sigfried: Already revealed to be possessed inside Nightmares armor- would be odd, but not at all impossible, to see a clean version of him. I'd give him better than 50/50 chances of making at least some appearance.
Tira: See Setsuka, but slightly better odds for making more games and having a more unique playstyle.
Thoughts? Changes? Kind words to make me less worried about Rafael not being included?